Happening this Thursday: President Biden delivers Oval Office address on Israel and Ukraine at 8:00 pm ET… Biden White House seeks$60 billion for Ukraine and $40 billion for Israel, Taiwan and U.S. border… U.S. House remains without a speaker after Rep. Jim Jordan failed on second speaker vote… And Donald Trump endorses Jim Justice in WV-SEN.
But FIRST… President Joe Biden is having a moment — after his Oct. 10 address condemning Hamas’ attack on Israel, after his one-day visit to Tel Aviv, and ahead of his primetime Oval Office address tonight.
The problem here for Biden: That moment isn’t paying off with the American electorate.
At least not yet.
Four different national polls conducted mostly or entirely after the president’s Oct. 10 speech — but before his trip to Israel — show Biden’s approval rating stuck in the high 30s to low 40s.
On Friday, NPR/PBS/Marist had his approval rating at 44% among registered voters.
On Tuesday, Quinnipiac had his approval at 38% among registered voters.
On Wednesday, CNBC’s national poll had Biden’s overall approval rating at 37% among all adults, with just 31% approving of his handling of foreign policy and 32% approving of his handling of the economy. (The poll also showed Biden trailing Donald Trump by 4 points nationally in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.)
And just out this Thursday morning, a new national Grinnell College poll, conducted by Ann Selzer, has Biden’s approval at 38% among all adults. (It also finds him tied with Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup among likely voters.)
One way to look at these numbers: It’s early. These polls were all conducted before his overseas trip to Israel and tonight’s Oval Office address. And there’s plenty of time for the praise Biden is getting for his handling of the war to show up in his later poll numbers.
But there’s another way to look at them: The public’s perception of Biden is disconnected from foreign policy and foreign affairs.
After all, his praised handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hasn’t helped his overall poll numbers, either.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 199
That’s how many House lawmakers voted for Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, to be House Speaker in the second floor vote of the week one Wednesday, falling short of the 217 votes needed to be elected speaker.
Though Jordan suffered a net loss of one vote compared to Tuesday’s vote, four House GOP lawmakers — Vern Buchanan of Florida, Drew Ferguson of Georgia, Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa and Pete Stauber of Minnesota– flipped away from him on the second vote, NBC’s Kyle Stewart reports.
But two lawmakers — Indiana’s Victoria Spartz and California’s Doug LaMalfa —flipped in favor of Jordan from the first vote. And Jordan gained Florida GOP Rep. Gus Bilirakis’ vote after he was absent on Tuesday.
NBC’s Scott Wong, Garrett Haake, Sahil Kapur and Kristen Welker detailed the “hardball” tactics Jordan’s supporters were using to convince lawmakers to vote in his favor. Miller-Meeks even said in a statement that her office received death threats and threatening phone calls after she did not vote for Jordan on the floor.
Eyes on 2024: Senate race shakeups
There was some big news in the West Virginia Senate race late Wednesday night, with former President Donald Trump endorsing Gov. Jim Justice over Rep. Alex Mooney in the Republican primary.
Trump’s decision aligns himself with National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, R-Mont., who had said he would work with the former president on key races, since the former president’s endorsement can have significant sway in primaries.
And that wasn’t the only Senate race news on Wednesday.
In Florida, retired Navy Commander Phil Ehr announced he would drop out of the Democratic primary and take on GOP Rep. Carlos Gimenez instead, per the Associated Press. His decision helps clear the way for former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell to take on GOP Sen. Rick Scott.
In California, longtime television news anchor Christina Pascucci, a Democrat, announced that she was jumping into a crowded field for the state’s open Senate race. She told Politico she “felt dismayed by how [the race] was shaping up. I spoke to a lot of others who felt the same way. Like, this is our future — more of the same.”
And in Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego got a boost from the state Democratic Party in his run against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat-turned-Independent.
The state party contributed $10,000 to Gallego’s campaign, NBC’s Sahil Kapur reports, writing, “It is the most aggressive move the state party has made yet to boost Gallego, solidifying his standing as the favorite for the Democratic nomination.” Sinema has not yet said if she is running for re-election.
In other campaign news …
Trump’s loyal supporters: NBC’s Jake Traylor reports from the campaign trail that many of Trump’s supporters say they would still back the former president, who is facing four criminal cases, even if he was sent to prison.
Pence’s position: Former Vice President Mike Pence has held fewer public events this week after filing a campaign finance report that showed a struggling campaign, per NBC’s Sarah Dean. The Washington Post reports that the campaign has made some staff cuts.
Turbulence for DeSantis: Politico explores what DeSantis’ decision to charter flights to Israel to help Americans leave the country means for his struggling presidential campaign. And ABC News unpacks some questions surrounding those flights.
Fundraiser flip: Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley has picked up support from an investor who previously backed DeSantis, ABC News reports.
RFK’s anti-vaccine impact: The Associated Press details the “the people hurt” by Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s anti-vaccine stances.
Graham for gov: The GOP primary for governor in North Carolina became more crowded on Wednesday, with attorney Bill Graham jumping into the race. Graham told the AP he’s willing to spend “at least $5 million” of his own money on the race.
Republican worries: The New York Times details how the chaos in the House could boost Democratic efforts to flip the chamber next year, noting “it has given them ample ammunition for their campaign narrative, which casts Republicans as right-wing extremists who are unfit to govern.”
Abortion on the ballot: Illinois Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker is launching a group to support ballot initiatives related to abortion rights, per the Times.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
Support for former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, President Biden’s nominee for ambassador to Israel, was split along party lines in a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Wednesday.
Four of Sen. Bob Menendez’ co-defendants, including his wife, pleaded not guilty on Wednesday to federal bribery charges.
An American journalist has been detained in Russia, NBC’s Yuliya Talmazan reports.
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